The 2025 handover from South Africa to a U.S.-hosted G20 marks a pivot from Global-South-centred multilateralism toward a more contested, growth-first, “America First–flavoured” global governance cycle.
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Executive Summary
In November 2025, South Africa hosted the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg under a presidency built around inclusive and sustainable growth, debt sustainability, MDB reform and just energy transitions. Leaders agreed a declaration that foregrounded debt vulnerabilities, a just energy transition (with particular emphasis on Africa), climate and disaster resilience, and a more representative international financial architecture, while recognising the central role of multilateral development banks (MDBs). Consilium
The United States, under President Trump, boycotted the summit but nonetheless took over the rotating G20 presidency on 1 December 2025, declaring a focus on three core themes: cutting regulatory burdens, securing affordable energy supply chains, and promoting technological innovation-led growth. Reuters The U.S. has since announced a “new G20” for its 2026 Miami summit, signalling its intention not to invite South Africa and instead include Poland, a move that breaks with two decades of stable G20 membership practice. mint
Because the U.S. skipped the Johannesburg summit, the physical handover of the G20 presidency instruments occurred quietly at South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation, where the gavel and related instruments were delivered to a U.S. Embassy official—South Africa’s attempt to maintain procedural continuity despite sharp political disagreement. DIRCO
Substantively, the South African presidency locked in a multi-year agenda on MDB reform via the G20 MDB Roadmap for “better, bigger and more effective” banks, which builds directly on the G20 capital adequacy review and the World Bank’s Evolution Roadmap. Boston University MDBs and regional banks (including the African Development Bank), along with UN bodies, the OECD and the ILO, now carry forward much of the G20’s work on SDGs, jobs and social protection, even as the leaders’ forum itself becomes more politicised. OECD, International Labour Organization.
Think About It This Way
This isn’t just a geographic handover; it’s a clash of governance models. South Africa’s presidency tried to consolidate a “Global South + MDB reform + climate justice” G20, while the incoming U.S. leadership is signalling a narrower club focused on deregulation, fossil-friendly energy security and strategic allies—potentially at the expense of universality and consensus. Reuters, mint
The result is a stress-test of club governance itself: can a self-selected group like the G20 remain the premier forum for economic cooperation when one large member openly contests the agenda, the membership, and even the meaning of multilateralism?
Implications (What This Means in Practice)
- Multilateralism Is Bruised, Not Broken
The Johannesburg declaration—agreed despite a U.S. boycott—shows that most G20 members still want a cooperative platform on debt, climate and development finance. But when the largest member chooses absence and denunciation, G20 “consensus” loses some normative weight and becomes easier to ignore domestically. Reuters - Global South Priorities Are Now Baked into the G20 Agenda
Across India (2023), Brazil (2024) and South Africa (2025), there is continuity: MDB reform, lower-cost climate finance, critical minerals governance and universal energy access are entrenched in the MDB Roadmap and sector frameworks. Even if the U.S. de-emphasises these politically, MDB boards, shareholders and country platforms will keep operationalising them through at least the late 2020s. World Bank, Boston University, G20 Summit - Membership and Legitimacy Become Central Fault Lines
The U.S. plan to exclude South Africa and invite Poland reframes G20 membership as contingent on ideological alignment rather than long-standing economic and regional representativeness. That pushes other members—especially the EU, large emerging economies and the African Union—to decide whether to treat Miami 2026 as “the” G20, a U.S.-led minilateral, or one forum among many beside the UN, BRICS, AU-G20 formats and regional clubs. IAI, mint, DIRCO - MDBs Become the Main Arena for Pragmatic Compromise
While leaders fight over membership and declarations, the MDB system now has a detailed, G20-endorsed roadmap to become “better, bigger and more effective,” backed by World Bank evolution reforms and pressure from shareholders like the AfDB and others to expand risk-taking and private capital mobilisation. Implementation choices on guarantees, local-currency lending, and country platforms will likely matter more for real-world climate and SDG outcomes than whatever political drama plays out at Miami. Boston University, G20 Summit - An Americas-Centred Cycle Could Rewire Development Coalitions
A U.S. presidency anchored in Miami, framed around deregulation and AI-driven growth, will pull Latin American and Caribbean actors into a new mix of interests: some will lean into the growth and trade agenda; others will push hard on debt relief, inequality and climate loss-and-damage, backed by ILO and UN evidence on labour markets and social protection. Expect sharper North–South bargaining inside the “Americas” itself, not just between the U.S. and Africa/Asia. Brookings, Reuters, International Labour Organization
Further Reading
| Report / Study (Year – Institution) | What it covers / Why useful | Official Link |
|---|---|---|
| G20 Johannesburg Leaders’ Declaration (2025 – G20 South Africa) | Core political commitments on debt, climate, energy, MDB reform and inclusive growth under South Africa’s presidency. G20+1 | G20 2025 Leaders’ Declaration |
| G20 MDB Roadmap: Better, Bigger and More Effective MDBs (2024 – G20) | Detailed reform programme for the MDB system (vision, risk, capital, private capital mobilisation, country platforms). Boston University | G20 MDB Roadmap |
| Multilateral Development Banks Welcome G20 Roadmap for MDB Reform (2024 – World Bank Group) | Joint MDB endorsement of the G20 Roadmap and what it means for scaling finance for SDGs and Paris alignment. World Bank | World Bank statement on G20 MDB Roadmap |
| World Bank Group Statement on Evolution Roadmap (2023 – World Bank Group) | Explains how the Bank will evolve mission, operations and financial model—underpinning the MDB reforms the G20 is amplifying. World Bank | World Bank Evolution Roadmap statement |
| The ILO and the G20 (ILO) | Overview of how the ILO shapes G20 discussions on decent work, youth employment, social protection and just transitions. International Labour Organization | The ILO and the G20 |
| Strengthening cooperation for a changing world: The evolving role of the G20 in global economic governance (2025 – Brookings) | Analytical framing of the G20’s role, engagement groups and links to UN-centred multilateralism—useful to situate the current tensions. Brookings | Brookings G20 governance report |
Explore With VoD
Copy-paste any of these and I’ll work it through with you:
- “Map how the G20 MDB Roadmap plus the World Bank Evolution agenda could change my country’s access to climate and SDG finance between 2026–2030.”
- “Stress-test three scenarios for the 2026 Miami G20 (cooperative, contested, fractured) and spell out the implications for Global South climate and debt negotiations.”
- “Show me a political-economy map: which coalitions (US/EU/BRICS/AU/LatAm) gain or lose influence from South Africa’s 2025 G20 legacy?”
- “Help me brief my minister: how should a small African or Caribbean state think about hedging between a U.S.-led ‘new G20’, the UN, and MDB boards?”
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Use VoD Capsules as a starting point for understanding; always review the linked reports and verify critical information.
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